Predictors of future travel intentions to Lagos megacity: Exploring the crime-risk perceptions

Abstract

The issue of crime risk associated with travel has been receiving increased attention, yet this has scarcely been studied in African contexts. Besides, how travel intention is influenced by the interactions of perceived crime risk and socio-economic characteristics has scarcely been investigated. This study examines whether perceived crime-risk factors and socio-economic characteristics help to explain future travel intentions to megacities using Lagos, Nigeria as a case study. Self-administered questionnaires were used to gather information from a sample of travellers who arrived in Lagos in 2019. Frequency counts, percentages, mean and Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLS) were used to analyse and interpret the data. The findings show that respondents were not certain about their safety in Lagos. Likewise, they were uncertain about their future travel to the city. Though partially mediated by travellers’ socio-economic characteristics, the findings show that perceived crime risk significantly predicts future travel intentions. Implications of these findings to travel and security management are discussed.